On April 20, 2023, Five army personnel were killed after their truck caught fire following a terrorist attack in Poonch, Jammu. This attack has raised questions on the claims of the Government of India that the security situation has been normalized in Jammu and Kashmir.
Why the Context Important ?
This attack is likely to cloud the preparations for the visit of Pakistan’s foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto to Goa in connection with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. It will further the bitterness in Indo-Pak Ties which are already in the state of deep freeze.
Were there any lapses like the Pulwama Incident of 2019?
Initial reports suggested that the ill-fated Army vehicle had caught fire, possibly due to a lightning strike, but later it was found that the vehicle was pockmarked by bullet holes. The serious thing was the vehicle was running in isolation and after attack no immediate help was available. This points towards serious lapses in coordination among security fotces.
Several dozen rounds of bullets have been fired on the vehicle. The use of a sticky bomb to trigger the blaze has not been ruled out. But nothing conclusive can be said about the attack till the NIA investigation is completed.
What is the ground situation 4 years after the revocation of Article 370?
The current security situation in the Valley is better than it has been in years which can be said on following grounds:
Decreasing Infiltration: Infiltration across the Line of Control (LoC) has come down sharply since 2019 . In 2022, until April, there have been only two infiltration attempts, both of which were foiled.
Recruitment Hiatus: There has been a consistent decline in recruitment of terrorists post 2019. In 2022, until April, an estimated 51 individuals are thought to have been recruited into terrorist cells, a sharp decline from previous years.
Reducing Terror Infra and Shifting Region of Influence: Residual terrorist infrastructure is at its lowest in the last 10 years and the epicenter of terrorism has shifted to South Kashmir from North Kashmir.
Quick Elimination of Killers: While there have been several incidents of targeted killings of Hindu and Sikh citizens and off-duty policemen and army personnel, the security forces have managed to capture or kill the assassins in almost all these cases.
Crackdown on Terror Financing and Narcotics: A concerted crackdown on terror financing and stringent policing to identify and book the key instigators has almost ended the stone-pelting incidents in Valley.
Better Intelligence Network: The success of security forces in anti-terror operations is due to the robust intelligence network (both human and technology intelligence) that has been built and sustained over the years.
How is militancy changing and appearing in New Avatars (New Militancy)?
In Kashmir, Militancy began with the onset of conflict in 1989 when organizations such as the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front used Islam to mobilize Kashmiris against India. However, after 2014, Kashmir has seen a “new form of militancy” and “Hybrid Militants”. Let’s understand the difference between them:
Full Fledged Terrorists used to announce their rebellion publicly whereas “Hybrid Militants” are more discreet and operate in anonymity. Hybrid Militants lead a normal life and remain engaged in day to day activity. However, they facilitate organized terrorists and even attack “soft targets” like unarmed laborers and Hindu pandits. These militants are really difficult to identify and eliminate.
Earlier, terrorist organizations used to Recruit Pakistani and other foreign militants where as in the last few years, an increasing number of local Kashmiris are joining these organization.
New militants are aggressively using social media to humanize themselves and their ideology, while demonizing India.
These militants are using messaging apps like WhatsApp and Telegram to mobilize crowds and brief militants on weapons, explosive devices, and the actual conduct of attacks. They are avoiding getting banned on social media by creating new names or using other online platforms such as Nand Box and TamTam to evade de-platforming.
What are the Challenges?
Access to Social Media: Analysts point to an increase in access to social media from 25 percent of the people in 2010 to 70 percent in 2015 has caused mass radicalisation and spread of anti-India propaganda amongst the Kashmiri youth.
Radicalisation: Security forces have acknowledged that they have not been successful in curbing this phenomenon despite banning radical Jamaat Islami.
Information Warfare: Pakistan is receiving a lot of assistance from countries like Turkey. to spice up their information war against India. The entire information war campaign is built around fabricated and exaggerated accounts of restricted religious freedoms in the Valley.
Popular Perception: The loss of statehood and conversion of J&K into a union territory has disturbed Kashmiris more than the dilution of Article 370.
What should be the way forward?
District Development Councils: Strengthening grassroot democracy can help to counter the extremist narrative and reduce the ‘Us vs Them’ disparity.
Social media: Government needs to invest in artificial intelligence (AI) and other technology to discourage extremist content on social media and creative ways where Kashmiris can consume the narratives produced by the Indian state and army.
Technology: Government can deploy smart technologies such as UAVs or drone technology in relatively peaceful areas in place of mass deployment of the Army. This will be helpful in countering the certain narratives of Kashmiris that India is an ‘occupier’ or ‘colonizer’.
Prepared by Res Indica Ias Academy
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